Summary History Median Estimate Problem
Posted: 11 April 2016 06:55 AM   [ Ignore ]
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Hello everybody,

I have a question concerning the median estimate output in the IBES Summary History category.
Whenever I choose a firm, a time frame, EPS, Fiscal Year 1, the median estimate and standard deviation for my output I get multiple median estimates and standard deviations.
As I only need one value this poses a problem because I cannot do anything with these multiple median, standard deviation combinations. Is there a way that I only get one median estimate and one standard deviation per company and forecast period?

Thanks in advance
Best regards
Nikolai

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Posted: 11 April 2016 10:37 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
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hi Nikolai,

The summary history is a monthly file, i.e., even for a given firm-year/quarter each month there is a median forecast. If you only want to have 1 median forecast you will need to pin down when the forecasts are measured (i.e., which month in time).

Best Regards,

Joost

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Posted: 11 April 2016 12:16 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
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Hi Joost,
thanks for the answer.

So if I understand your answer right there is no way to get just one median estimate for one complete fiscal year?

Best regards
Nikolai

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Posted: 11 April 2016 04:43 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]
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hi Nikolai,

Forecasts get updated over time; the way these datasets are constructed is that you can see medians, revisions, etc over time. That makes it a time-series, while the median is normally used on cross section data. You could take the median or average of the 12 monthly medians, but I don’t know what that would actually measure. Best to decide when to measure in time.

Best Regards,

Joost

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