Hi everybody,

I am trying to calculate forecast accuracy using the IBES database.

The exact calculation is as follows: absolute value of (“the median of one year ahead analysts’ forecasts for EPS for period t ” minus “actual EPS in period t”) divided by “price per share at the beginning of period t.”

Now I am a bit confused as how to do this in IBES. This is what I have so far:

• Median of one year ahead analysts’ forecasts of EPS.

I downloaded the IBES Unadjusted Summary file (FPI = 2, since I need one year ahead estimates): this gives me monthly median EPS estimates. I think alternatively I could also download the unadjusted detail file and then calculate the median estimates per month, but I guess this should be approximately the same.

• Actual EPS:

Here I use FPI = 1. I downloaded the IBES Adjusted Summary file with the data item “actuals from details files” (the unadjusted summary file does not have this actual data item). These actuals seem to match with the results of IBES Detail Unadjusted Actuals file, which I also downloaded. So far so good.

My problem = the periods do not match.

Actual EPS: these are given on an annual basis (is this EPS at fiscal year end?).

Forecasted median EPS: monthly median estimates (in Summary file), or monthly detailed estimates (from Details file).

What should I do? Take the average of the 12 monthly median estimates from the Summary file to come to an “average” median estimate per fiscal year & then compare this with the annual actual EPS? I am not sure how else to fix it.

Moreover, I am not sure where to get the price per share at the beginning of period t. It seems that I cannot get this out of IBES. Can I perhaps use the pccc-f (closing price, fiscal) from Compustat and then match on the basis of 9 digit CUSIPS?

Any help is very much appreciated! Thank you in advance for your time and effort.

Best regards,

Elisa