Does IBES extract analysts’ estimates and forecasts from their report?
Posted: 03 November 2015 11:10 PM   [ Ignore ]
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Hello everyone smile

Recently just ran into this issue. Normally, I just assume that IBES got those estimation and forecast from the analyst reports. Another words, each record in the recommendation table and detail history table is corresponding to one analyst report.  But to be careful, I am trying to find the hard evidence to back up this assumption.

From WRDS website, the IBES Manuals and overview, I found the “Methodology for Estimates October 2009”,

Link:
https://wrds-web.wharton.upenn.edu/wrds/support/Data/_001Manuals and Overviews/_003I-B-E-S/index.cfm

On page 20, in the example, it mentioned

“On November 30, 2006, Broker XYZ told Thomson Reuters that their $2.20 should have been $2.26. Broker XYZ provides documented proof that the estimate that was sent to Thomson Reuters via a feed was incorrect, and that their research reports support that the estimate is actually $2.26. Thomson Reuters will apply the correct value to the detail estimate for the applicable quarter, on the date that the estimate was effective. Because of the change, the mean will change to $2.17. In this scenario, the “as-was” mean is $2.15 and the “error-corrected” mean is $2.17.””

I am not sure this can be the hard evidence or not. Is there anyone know where IBES has a clear clarification about this issue? Thanks a lot.

Regards

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Posted: 04 November 2015 08:50 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
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hi Kenny,

I think the quoted text means is that a broker had initially sent the wrong estimate, which the broker then corrected later. I’m not sure, but I think that analysts provide the numbers themselves, and the data collection of IBES is automated (so no ‘workers’ at IBES reading reports and finding numbers).

Best Regards,

Joost

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Posted: 04 November 2015 02:22 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
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Hi Joost,

Thanks a lot for the reply!

In the quote, I noticed that if the analyst want to correct their estimation, they can not just simply say “Hey, the previous number was wrong , here is the correct one”. They need to provide the report as evidence to support their new number.

Similarly, I was thinking, if they are required to provide report for correction, maybe they are also required to provide report for the initial estimation.

And even if the collection of IBES is automated, the analyst should submit something for them to automate. Hopefully, they don’t just submit the number smile

Still found no place directly clarify this, bothered me for quit a while. Anyway, thanks Joost !

Best Regards

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Posted: 04 November 2015 02:32 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]
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hi Kenny,

Contacting IBES itself will probably be the best way to know how things work! smile

Best Regards,

Joost

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Posted: 04 November 2015 05:16 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 4 ]
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Thanks Joost,

If I got any lucky from contacting IBES, I will post their response.

Best.

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Posted: 08 November 2015 08:12 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 5 ]
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Thanks Kenny!

Best,

Joost

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